Global Cotton Production Reduced in 6 Years
Washington D.C, United States - World cotton production in 2015/16 is forecast at 109.0 million bales, 2.5 million bales below last month’s projection and 10 million bales below 2014/15. The decrease is largely the result of declines for the United States, China, and India. Global cotton area in 2015/16 is forecast at 31.3 million hectares, 7 percent below 2014/15; the reduced area, coupled with a lower world yield—757 kg/hectare— results in 2015/16 production that is projected below consumption and would be the smallest crop since 2009/10
For India — expected to be the largest producing country—the cotton crop is projected at 29.0 million bales in 2015/16, about 2 percent below last season’s 29.5 million bales. With a normal monsoon this season, a 7-percent reduction in area is partially offset by a higher yield expectation. India’s area estimate was reduced in August due to slower-than-expected planting progress to date. In China, production is forecast at 26.0 million bales in 2015/16, 4 million bales below last season. Fewer incentives to plant cotton are forecast to have reduced area nearly 18 percent in 2015/16. However, a larger proportion of the area is in the higher yielding western province; China’s yield is projected at a record 1,562 kg/hectare this season, thus reducing the impact of the lower area. The August estimate is 1.0 million bales below July due to lower reported area and extreme heat in the Xinjiang region.
Pakistan’s crop is forecast at 10.2 million bales, nearly 4 percent below 2014/15. While area is expected to rise 2 percent there, a reduction in yield reduces Pakistan’s production 400,000 bales in 2015/16. Meanwhile, Brazil’s crop is forecast unchanged in 2015/16 at 7.0 million bales, as area and yield are projected to equal that of 2014/15.
